Millions and millions of phones... Literally!
Friday, 29 October 2010
The rise and rise of the connected device…
The mobile phone industry posted its Q3 sales figures yesterday,
and predictably they showed a continuation of the quarter on
quarter increase we've seen since late 2009.
Overall global figures for mobile phone sales dropped in 2009 by
0.9%, but the bounce back since then has been beyond dramatic, with
growth of around 20%. What global recession, I hear you cry.
When I saw the figures the sheer scale nearly made me drop my
smartphone. In the three months between July and September of this
year global sales totalled 327
million units.
In terms of market share, Nokia remained the overall leader with
shipments of 110.4 million units
and Samsung claimed second place with shipments of
71.4 million units. LG
Electronics was third with shipments of 28.4
million units.
A major talking point from this set of results, other than the
sheer scale of the growth, was the fact that for the first time
Apple broke into the top five manufactures with Q3 sales of 14.1
million.
This highlights the unstoppable rise of the smartphone.
Now I'm going to step aside and let some figures do the
talking.
Future Figures…
1) Mobile subscribers will surpass
5 billion in 2010 (that's over 70 percent of the
world population) and growing rapidly, led by China and India.
2) Half a billion
people accessed mobile Internet worldwide in 2009. Usage is
expected to double within five years as mobile
overtakes the PC as the most popular way to get on the Web.
3) By 2011, over 85 percent of new
handsets will be able to access the mobile Web.
4) Almost one in five global
mobile subscribers have access to fast mobile Internet (3G or
better) services and the number of 3G handsets is growing fast.
5) SMS is still king of mobile
messaging with more than 6.1 trillion messages
sent in 2010. Despite the popularity of mobile email, IM and MMS,
SMS is predicted to exceed 10 trillion in
2013.
Now I'm not just highlighting all these facts because I'm a huge
mobile phone geek (although I kind of am).
The Global Purchasing Event…
At Undercurrent we run a quarterly event for the Carphone
Warehouse group buying team that gives major suppliers of both
mobile phone handsets and laptops & accessories a chance to
showcase upcoming products, set out their nine month road map, and
ultimately influence the final numbers.
It also gives buyers from across Europe representing Carphone
Warehouse, The Phone House, and now Best Buy Europe, a chance to
compare notes, talk through best practice, and get a feel for the
kinds of handsets that do well in different regions.
The recently announced global industry figures help
put all this into perspective, and gives an idea of the kinds of
unit quantities being talked about during the
buying event for Europe's largest, independent mobile phone
retailer. They are, by any standard, staggering.
Put it on the tab(let)…
The rise of the smart phone, with the spreading of the global
net of 3G connectivity, and the insatiable appetite people now have
for internet on the move (see point 2 in the future facts section)
will also undoubtedly fuel the spread of the internet tablet.
The interesting peice will be whether these devices can grow
alongside the smart phone rise, or whether they will start eating
into the sales of the latter.
It's not how big it is, it's what you can do with it
that counts…
Part of this could be determined by the battle of the
inches.
Apple has taken the decision to keep their offerings at 10.5",
and claim they will never shrink their tablets to the 7" screen
seemingly favoured by most other manufacturers. They claim the
iPad's size manages to ensure its interface experience is unique,
and can fulfil a different role to that of the iPhone - that of
serious internet browsing, and serious software usage. The question
is whether the 7" screens can offer up a unique enough service, or
whether they will be limited in their usability by their smallish
screen.
And that's the exciting thing about the evolution of smart
connective devices that have found their next incarnation in the
internet tablet. This is not nature at work, its technology, and
the evolutionary process is happening so fast that no one really
knows whether the products they are developing are the ones that
the complex consumer really needs.
How big should they be? Should you be able to make calls from
them? Will they be replacing the laptop, the smartphone, or both?
This is a go to market race the likes of which we haven't seen
since the days of Sinclair vs Amstrad, although this time global
firms are competing for shares of a billion dollar industry. And of
course the products are way cooler.
At this quarter's GPE, tablets will have a major presence, with
over 30 being showcased, and we can't wait to see what route the
manufacturers we deal with have gone down.
So in conclusion…
The mobile phone revolutionised the way we communicate, now they
are revolutionising the way we access and consume media. Whatever
else is happening in the world to fragment the global population,
there is one thing we've all got in common - everyone wants the
next big thing!
Bring on Xmas trading!
Will Best
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